PrEF: Probabilistic Electricity Forecasting via Copula-Augmented State Space Model

A Hybrid Model for Gefcom2014 Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting a Hybrid Model for Gefcom2014 Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting

This paper provides detailed information on Team Poland’s approach in the electricity price forecasting track of GEFCom2014. A new hybrid model is proposed, consisting of four major blocks: point forecasting, pre-filtering, quantile regression modeling and post-processing. This universal model structure enables independent development of a single block, without affecting performance of the rema...

GEFCOM 2014 - Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting

Energy price forecasting is a relevant yet hard task in the field of multi-step time series forecasting. In this paper we compare a wellknown and established method, ARMA with exogenous variables with a relatively new technique Gradient Boosting Regression. The method was tested on data from Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 with a year long rolling window forecast. The results from th...

Monash Electricity Forecasting Model

Grey Prediction Model for Forecasting Electricity consumption

Accurate prediction of the future electricity consumption is crucial for production electricity management. Since the storage of electrical energy is very difficult, reliable and accurate prediction of power consumption is important. Different approaches for this purpose were used. In this paper, Grey model (1,1) based on grey system theory has been used for forecasting results. Annual electric...

Hierarchical Probabilistic Forecasting of Electricity Demand with Smart Meter Data

Electricity smart meters record consumption, on a near real-time basis, at the level of individual commercial and residential properties. From this, a hierarchy can be constructed consisting of time series of demand at the smart meter level, and at various levels of aggregation, such as substations, cities and regions. Forecasts are needed at each level to support the efficient and reliable man...